[SMM Steel Market Morning Briefing] The US non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, against an estimated increase of 138,000 and a prior increase of 228,000. The March data was revised down. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

★Macro★

01 ★★★ 

【US April Nonfarm Payrolls Surge Past Expectations, Unemployment Rate Holds Steady】

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding the forecasted 138,000 and the previous month's 228,000. March's figures were revised downward. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

02 ★★★ 

【China Steps Up Investment to Support Long-Term Data Infrastructure Development】

China will continue to increase central fiscal funding to support local and industry-wide construction of foundational, public-interest, and long-term data infrastructure projects. It will effectively utilize ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to accelerate the establishment of a national data infrastructure framework. Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it will expedite the formulation of a national data infrastructure plan.

03  ★★  

【California Governor: State to Keep "Trade Doors Open" to China】

California Governor Gavin Newsom stated in an online interview with Nikkei Asia on May 2 that the Trump administration's tariff policies had inflicted significant harm on California, and the state would continue to keep its "trade doors open" to China. Newsom emphasized that California has consistently been a "stable trading partner" for China. Both sides have signed a series of cooperation memoranda at the provincial, state, local, and city levels. During his visit to China last year, he extended the ties with China to the national level. He stressed that California keeps its "doors open" to all trading partners, including China, as global trade is not a zero-sum game, and "we are interdependent."

04  ★★  

【EU Steel Exports to US Plummet by 1 Million mt, Incurring €2 Billion in Losses】

Since the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on March 12, the EU steel industry has suffered a severe blow. Meanwhile, US domestic consumers have also had to "foot the bill" for this policy. Axel Eggert, Director General of the European Steel Association, stated that steel exports to the US have decreased by 1 million mt, resulting in losses of approximately €2 billion. This policy will also have a significant impact on US steel users. Currently, the US steel industry is unable to produce a large quantity of different grades of products and relies on steel imports from the EU. If US steel users are unable to procure these products from the domestic market, their procurement costs will increase by 25%. 

05  ★★  

【Inflation Expectations Soar to 40-Year High, US Tariffs Lead to Economic "Quagmire"】

Affected by the US government's tariff policies, US inflation expectations have surged to a 40-year high, and the probability of an economic recession has soared. Additionally, freight volumes on the US West Coast have plummeted, and the repatriation of manufacturing industries faces challenges. These multiple pressures have cast a shadow over the US economic outlook. According to the University of Michigan's April 25 consumer sentiment survey data, consumers' expectations for domestic inflation over the next year rose to 6.5% in April, the highest since 1981. Expectations for price increases over the next five to ten years surged to 4.4% in April, the highest since 1991. Furthermore, the median forecast among US economists for the likelihood of an economic recession within a year has skyrocketed from 20% in January this year to 45% in April. 

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★ 

【Total Land Acquisition by Key Real Estate Developers Increases 26.6% YoY from January to April】

【Total Land Acquisition by Key Real Estate Developers Increases 26.6% YoY from January to April】The China Index Academy recently released the "Top 100 Real Estate Developers' Land Acquisition Rankings in China from January to April 2025." From January to April 2025, the total land acquisition by the top 100 developers reached 360.8 billion yuan, up 26.6% YoY, with the growth rate decreasing by 4.0 percentage points MoM. The land auction market in hotspot cities remained heated in April. From January to April 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in 22 cities increased by over 40% YoY. This growth was driven by fierce competition among developers for high-quality plots and reflected the land value in core areas. In terms of new inventory value, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development ranked among the top three.

02 ★★★ 

【Land Auction Market Remains Hot in April: Developers Bet on Core Cities, Average Premium Rate for Residential Land in 22 Cities Rises to 28%】

In April's land market, Hangzhou stood out with multiple plots achieving premium rates exceeding 50%. Not only Hangzhou, but also Nanjing, Suzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, and other cities witnessed high-premium transactions of residential land in April. Overall, the land auction market in key cities remained heated. Data from the China Index Academy showed that from April 1 to 22, the average premium rate for residential land in 22 key cities reached 28%, a new high since October 2023. Additionally, according to data from the E-House China R&D Institute, as of April 27, the premium rate for residential land in 25 key cities nationwide in the first four months of the year was 19%, an increase of 13 percentage points compared to the 6% premium rate for the entire previous year.

03 ★★ 

【CRIC: Real Estate Market Stabilizes in Q1, Second-Hand Home Sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou Increase 17% YoY】

CRIC Real Estate stated that the real estate market stabilized in the first quarter. The second-hand home markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou saw an increase in transaction volume and stable prices, with sales up 17% YoY. Demand for high-end renovations and luxury homes rebounded, while prices for first-time buyer homes stabilized. As a leading indicator for new home sales, the second-hand home market has helped repair market expectations and accelerate the overall market's recovery. As a "barometer" for the new home market, the second-hand home market, on the one hand, has characteristics of a leading indicator and is more sensitive to policy changes; on the other hand, stable second-hand home prices also contribute to stabilizing expectations for the new home market.

04 ★★ 

【"Labour Day Holiday" Sparks "Upgrade Fever" in Shanghai's Real Estate Market, High-Quality New Projects Achieve High Subscription Rates】

On the eve of the Labour Day holiday, 11 new commercial housing projects in Shanghai were approved for listing, with a total of 1,577 units gradually entering the market in recent days. These projects primarily feature high-end renovation products, with the most expensive unit priced at over 150 million yuan. Despite many Shanghai residents leaving the city for travel during the holiday, the new home market in Shanghai remained hot. Multiple new home projects chose to launch subscriptions during the holiday, resulting in a final subscription frenzy, with many projects triggering sales restrictions and a points-based system.

05 ★★ 

【New Policy for Home Purchase Subsidies in Suzhou: From May 1 to June 30, Buyers of New Commercial Homes Can Enjoy a 0.5% Subsidy of the Purchase Contract Amount】

According to a May 2 message from the WeChat official account "Suzhou Release," to meet residents' rigid and improvement-oriented housing needs, a home purchase subsidy policy will be implemented citywide in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, during the "Suzhou Heartfelt Home Purchase Season" (from May 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025). Homebuying families purchasing newly built commercial homes in Suzhou (excluding talent housing, resettlement housing, etc.) can enjoy a subsidy of 0.5% of the purchase contract amount (based on the online contract registration amount). After the homebuying family obtains the real estate ownership certificate, the county-level city (district) where the new home is located will be responsible for issuing the subsidy according to procedures.

06 ★★ 

【15,569 Second-Hand Residential Properties Sold in Beijing in April, Up 16.59% YoY】

Data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development showed that 15,569 second-hand residential properties were net signed in Beijing in April, down 19.05% MoM but up 16.59% YoY. With the concentrated release of pent-up demand from the Chinese New Year and school enrollment needs in March, the activity level in Beijing's second-hand home market declined in April, but the number of net signed second-hand homes still maintained a certain level.

07 ★★ 

【Data Shows Shenzhen's Second-Hand Home Sales in April Increased 33.5% YoY, Far Exceeding the 5,000-Unit Threshold】

According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, the number of second-hand homes recorded in Shenzhen in April was 6,597 units, down 14.4% MoM but up 33.5% YoY, far exceeding the 5,000-unit threshold and remaining at a relatively high level. The number of net signed second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen in April was 5,733 units, down 5.7% MoM but up 37.4% YoY. In terms of new homes, the total number of net signed first-hand residential properties in Shenzhen in April was 3,695 units, up 28.7% YoY, still at a relatively high level. As of the end of April, the inventory of first-hand pre-sale residential properties in Shenzhen was 28,062 units. Based on the average monthly sales rate of first-hand pre-sale residential properties over the past 12 months (3,494 units per month), the sales period is 8.0 months.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕【Changan Automobile: April Sales Down 9.27% YoY】Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) announced that its sales in April 2025 reached 190,700 units, down 9.27% YoY. From January to April, cumulative sales reached 895,800 units, down 0.71% YoY.

⭕【BYD: NEV Sales Reach 1.3809 Million Units in First Four Months, Up 46.98% YoY】BYD announced on May 5 that its NEV sales in April 2025 reached 380,100 units, up 21.33% YoY. From January to April 2025, the company's cumulative NEV sales reached 1.3809 million units, up 46.98% YoY.

⭕【Chery Group's April Auto Sales Exceed 200,000 Units, Up 10.3% YoY】Chery Group released its sales bulletin, stating that in April, the group sold 200,760 vehicles, up 10.3% YoY. Among them, Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. sold 184,850 vehicles, up 5.2% YoY. The group sold 61,223 NEVs, up 85.5% YoY, and exported 87,738 vehicles. From January to April, Chery Group's cumulative auto sales reached 820,785 units, up 15.3% YoY. Cumulative exports reached 343,203 units, and cumulative NEV sales reached 224,629 units, up 140.7% YoY.

⭕【Volkswagen Brand's Q1 2025 Sales Reach 35.3 Billion Euros, Up 7.8% YoY】Volkswagen brand's sales in the first quarter of 2025 reached 35.3 billion euros, up 7.8% YoY. Sales increased by 2.7% to 1.22 million units (compared to 1.19 million units in Q1 2024).

⭕【XPeng Motors: Delivers 35,045 New Vehicles in April, Up 273% YoY】XPeng Motors announced its latest delivery results on May 1. In April 2025, XPeng Motors delivered 35,045 new vehicles, up 273% YoY and 6% MoM. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng MONA M03 exceeded 100,000 units eight months after its launch. The XPeng P7+ completed the production of its 50,000th unit five months after its launch. From January to April 2025, XPeng Motors' cumulative deliveries reached 129,053 units, up 313% YoY. In April, XPeng Motors surpassed the 700,000-unit delivery milestone.

⭕【Li Auto Delivers 33,939 Vehicles in April, Up 31.6% YoY】Li Auto delivered 33,939 vehicles in April, up 31.6% YoY. As of April 30, 2025, Li Auto's historical cumulative deliveries reached 1,260,675 units.